The U.S. automotive aftermarket reached total sales of $297 billion in 2018, exceeding the projected growth rate by nearly $1 billion. This is according to the 2019 Joint Channel Forecast Model produced by the Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association (AASA) and the Auto Care Association.
The 2019 Joint Channel Forecast Model predicts that total aftermarket sales will grow from $297 billion in 2018 to $338 billion through 2022, a 3.3 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2018.
“In our report last year, we anticipated that the market would increase during 2018. But as this report shows, strong economic growth in our country spurred more aftermarket spending than anticipated,” said Paul McCarthy, president and chief operating officer, AASA. “This year’s report shows continued positives ahead for aftermarket growth, such as increases in vehicles in operation (VIO) and an aging vehicle parc. However, it also indicates challenges, too, such as shifts in the distribution model as consumers’ expectations for service and repair change. We believe the aftermarket will meet the challenges and opportunities ahead as it always has, through leadership, vision and entrepreneurial spirit.”
“More vehicles on the road with an average age of nearly 12 years old – and the 12-year-and-older category now representing 44% of total light vehicles and growing at 4% annually – equals good business for the aftermarket,” said Bill Hanvey, president and CEO, Auto Care Association. “Coupling that with steady miles driven, growth in e-tailing and high consumer confidence reinforces the positive outlook for the industry. Emerging technologies such as ADAS, electrification and automation will present more opportunities for this growth to continue through 2022 and beyond.”
The market sizing and forecast is conducted on behalf of AASA and the Auto Care Association by economic and market information firm, IHS Markit. The forecast is based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s Economic Census, IMR and IHS vehicle data (formerly R.L. Polk data), and IHS Markit’s proprietary economic analysis and forecasting models.
The Joint Channel Forecast Model will be available soon at the AASA website, and in the Auto Care Association’s 2020 Auto Care Factbook, available today at autocare.org.