BETHESDA, Md. – A new Channel Forecast Model, funded jointly by three major automotive aftermarket trade associations and featured in the Automotive Aftermarket Industry Association (AAIA) Digital Factbook 2010, is predicting that aftermarket sales will increase 4.5 percent in 2010. The first-ever market overview to use both 1997 and 2002 Economic Census data determines the dollar value of sales at end-user prices for each of 42 automotive aftermarket channels of distribution.
Taking the U.S. economy into account with widely fluctuating gasoline prices, reduced miles driven, tightening credit markets and growing unemployment, total U.S. motor vehicle aftermarket end-user sales in 2008 were about even with the previous year rising only 0.2 percent. As the recession continues to hold down consumer spending, a decline of 1.3 percent is anticipated for the 2009 calendar year followed by a rebound of 4.5 percent in 2010.
The Channel Forecast Model defines the automotive aftermarket as all non-warranty, retail sales of replacement parts, accessories, chemicals, tires and services for passenger cars and light trucks. Included are retail sales of paint, tools and equipment for repairs, trim and interior products, vehicle restorations, replacement glass and tires.
Among the data in the Channel Forecast Model are:
• Size of U.S. motor vehicle aftermarket 1997-2010
• Growth rate of U.S. motor vehicle aftermarket 1997-2010
• Aftermarket sales history and forecast by channel 1997-2010
• Aftermarket sales to end user by distribution channel 2007-2009
• Size of automotive aftermarket DIY and DIFM 1997-2010
• Size of professional service parts market 1997-2010
• Dealerships’ share of automotive aftermarket sales 2000-2010
• Aftermarket service growth rates by channel 2002-2008
• Aftermarket retail growth rates by channel 2002-2008
• Average sales per outlet 2002-2008
o New vehicle dealerships
o Independent repair shops
o Auto parts stores
The model was created by IHS Global Insight for the Automotive Aftermarket Industry Association (AAIA), the Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association (AASA) and the Specialty Equipment Market Association (SEMA). Additional data from R. L. Polk & Co., IMR Inc. and IHS Global Insight were used in the model. The AAIA Market Research Committee provided input to assure reasonableness tests for the model.
IMR Inc. provides the data from their Continuing Consumer Auto Maintenance Survey, which provides replacement rate data broken out by 27 product codes for 10 types of vehicles by age. Conducted quarterly, the survey includes 100,000 participants and approximately 187,000 vehicles.
R. L. Polk & Co. provides vehicle registration (parc data) each year broken into 10 vehicle classes and vintage.
IHS Global Insight’s data is a combination of proprietary data and macroeconomic data that pertain to the automotive aftermarket industry and includes unit sales of cars and light trucks, a variety of CPI indices, retail sales for different automotive-related channels, etc.
The Channel Forecast Model is included in the AAIA Digital Aftermarket Factbook 2010. AAIA members received a complimentary copy of the Digital Aftermarket Factbook 2010 as a member benefit via e-mail in May and June with three guest passes included. While additional copies may be purchased for $200, the non-member price is $450. To order, contact Member Services at 301-654-6664 or visit www.aftermarket.org and click "Market Research," then click on the link for a full listing of market research products.
