From the Detroit Free Press / Justin Hyde
WASHINGTON — The Bush administration will launch a new study next week to estimate what kind of technology automakers will need to raise fuel efficiency over the next 15 years, updating and expanding a 2002 report that’s been a benchmark in this summer’s energy debate.
The National Academy of Sciences panel, which includes environmentalists, independent experts and automotive engineers, will spend the next year working on the report. No date is set for the report’s release. The panel will hear testimony from federal officials and auto industry executives during its first public meeting in Washington on Monday.
With Congress moving toward passing some kind of increase in fuel-economy standards and President Bush ordering his administration to set its own increases by the end of next year, the updated report will act as a road map for many future decisions by federal regulators.
The 2002 edition concluded, over objections from automakers, that the industry could raise the efficiency of its cars by up to 27 percent and its trucks by 42 percent over a decade — to roughly 30 miles per gallon (mpg) — with no changes in weight, size or performance. U.S. cars and trucks are expected to average 26.4 mpg in the 2007 model year, the highest level ever, according to federal estimates.
Environmental groups say with higher gasoline prices and newer technology, the auto industry could build even more efficient models and has used the academy of sciences report to support a Senate bill that would raise standards to 35 mpg by 2020. But automakers have long objected to the 2002 report, saying it overstated the benefits of new technologies and understated the costs and engineering work needed to put them into vehicles.
The study analyzed the costs and benefits of about 30 technologies, ranging from the cheap and simple — lower-friction engine oils — to the expensive and complex — engines that use electronic motors instead of camshafts to control valves. As pressure to improve fuel economy has grown around the world, every automaker has turned to technologies from the list.
Better aerodynamics and variable valve timing are standard features of many new models. Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Corp. are adding six-speed automatic transmissions, while Chrysler will offer a different kind of advanced transmission in its future models.
And Detroit’s automakers all have plans to expand the use of engines using gasoline direct injection, which promises a fuel-economy improvement of up to 15 percent. But the study did not include an analysis of two important technologies: hybrids and diesels, both of which play growing roles in automakers’ plans for meeting tougher environmental standards. The update will cover both and create new estimates of the cost and benefits of better technology.
