VAN BUREN TWP., MI — , June 29 /PRNewswire/ — The 2005 Ricardo diesel report predicts a momentous rise in U.S. light duty diesel market penetration over the coming decade. Sales in the light duty vehicle segment (up to 8,500 pounds gross vehicle weight) are projected to grow from a mere 43,000 units in 2004, to exceed one million units annually by 2012, rising to 1.5 million by 2015.
This dramatic conclusion is just part of the annual review of selected international light duty diesel markets published by Ricardo, a global automotive technology provider that draws upon its unparalleled international expertise in automotive diesel technology and extensive knowledge of automotive markets.
In examining the U.S. market, the research team has incorporated an in- depth analysis of current market trends together with an assessment of future consumer tastes, legislative fuel quality and emissions standards, and the probable commercial implementation of new and emerging technologies.
While diesel already enjoys a market penetration of more than 56 percent in the U.S. premium light truck sector (between 3/4 and 1 ton capacity), cost remains a major issue for passenger cars, light trucks and sport utility vehicles. Significant efforts are currently underway by Ricardo and others to reduce engine-out emissions, as well as in the development of more effective after- treatment devices.
With the implementation timing of practical and cost-effective solutions likely to be one of the principle drivers for further diesel penetration, Ricardo predicts that a rapid increase in diesel sales will follow as such devices become both readily available and affordable to the consumer from 2009 onward.
Elsewhere, the global growth of light duty diesel sales continues to gain momentum, with 2004 posting the largest volume increase for a decade. The sales ratio of diesel to gasoline vehicles for the larger manufacturers continues to grow, led by Volkswagen which now reports more than60 percent of its car sales as diesels.
In Western Europe, diesel car sales in 2004 continued to flourish in all of the major national markets, with overall penetration reaching a record level of more than 48 percent and with no immediate sign of a slow down. In the context of a marginally strengthening passenger car market in Western Europe compared with that of 2003, a 5.4 percent decrease in gasoline sales was more than offset by an 11.9 percent increase in diesel sales.
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