From Tire Review
According to a new survey by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), the U.S. economy "will continue its slow growth next year and joblessness will remain high."
“Economists responding to the latest NABE Outlook Survey expect moderate economic growth through 2012, with little likelihood of another recession or an outbreak of inflation,” said NABE Outlook Survey Chair Shawn DuBravac, chief economist at the Consumer Electronics Association.
In an ABC News report, those who responded in the survey “expect inflation-adjusted gross domestic product, known as real GDP, to grow at 2.5 percent in the final quarter of 2011 and 2.4 percent in 2012.
“Unemployment, the group said, is expected to decline slightly next year from its current 9 percent level,” the report said, but “business spending and housing starts are expected to continue to rise.”
“Corporate profits and stock prices are predicted to strengthen. But the panel remains concerned about debt-related issues in Europe,” the NABE said.
Other highlights include:
• The NABE Outlook panel predicts moderate real GDP growth through year-end 2012. A 2.5 percent pace is expected during the fourth quarter of 2011, followed by a 2.4 percent growth rate in 2012, with GDP in the second half of 2012 slightly stronger than in the first half.
• The odds of a second recession are low. Only two of 42 forecasters predicted a decline in real GDP over the near-term. As a group, the panelists saw a recession as the least likely scenario. Forecast confidence has improved, but remains low.
• The panel expects employment will improve very slowly. Monthly job gains are expected to rise from an average of 100,000 during the fourth quarter of 2011 to 130,000 by the end of next year. The jobless rate will decline from 9.1 percent to 8.9 percent in 2012, but will remain the single greatest concern going forward.
• Growth in consumer spending, forecast to increase 2.1 percent in 2011, is expected to remain below trend.
• Housing starts are expected to increase 10 percent in 2012.
• Industrial production is expected to increase 4 percent in 2011 and 3.3 percent in 2012.
