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Forecast: Total US Aftermarket Sales To Increase 11.2%

AASA/Auto Care’s Joint Channel Forecast Model details a strong aftermarket recovery and indicators for continued growth.

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The automotive aftermarket proved its resiliency once again with a stronger than expected performance in 2020, despite the global COVID-19 pandemic, and is anticipated to recover robustly in 2021. Total United States light-duty automotive aftermarket sales are forecasted to increase 11.2% in 2021, totaling $325 billion, according to the “2021 Joint Channel Forecast Model” produced jointly by the Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association (AASA) and the Auto Care Association. This data was initially released in a joint, member-exclusive webinar led by Shane Norton of IHS Markit on June 7, 2021. 

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An additional 5.3% growth is expected for 2022 and growth will average more than 4% in 2023 and 2024, bringing the light-duty aftermarket to $372 billion. 

“The aftermarket has once again proved its toughness, and the pandemic affected the aftermarket less severely than other industries and even less than forecasted within our own industry,” said Paul McCarthy, president and COO, AASA. “The Joint Channel Forecast shows that the continued success and resilience of the aftermarket will only continue in upcoming years. Right now, aftermarket suppliers are dealing with the challenging impacts of a boom, including supply chain disruptions, yet the forecast shows continued strength for the aftermarket well into the future.” 

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“Increased reliance on personal transportation coupled with shifts in consumer purchase and maintenance behavior primes the aftermarket for continued growth,” said Bill Hanvey, president and CEO, Auto Care Association. “The pace at which consumers return to normal mobility patterns will also dictate the future growth of our industry. Indicators suggest that consumers will continue to hold on to their older vehicles, which creates further opportunity for the aftermarket. COVID-19, while a challenge, was a catalyst for many of the tailwinds we’re experiencing today.”  

Key data in the joint channel forecast model include:  

  • Market trends influencing the aftermarket;  
  • A 2020-2024 review of industry growth and forecasts; 
  • Industry sales by channel including history and forecasts;  
  • Industry sales by distribution channel; and more.  

The market sizing and forecast are conducted on behalf of AASA and the Auto Care Association by IHS Markit, a leading business intelligence firm. The forecast is based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s Economic Census, IMR Inc., and proprietary data, economic analysis and forecasting models from IHS Markit. 

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The Joint Channel Forecast Model is available at the AASA website, www.aftermarketsuppliers.org, and in the Auto Care Association’s 2022 Auto Care Factbook at digital.autocare.org/2022factbook

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