The automotive aftermarket continues to be impacted by shifts in the industry and overall economy. To stay competitive, businesses need to know where the market is headed, SEMA says.
The new “SEMA Future Trends – January 2023” report, available now at www.sema.org/research, provides a detailed analysis of the industry’s most important issues and trends in 2023 and beyond. Designed to help aftermarket companies make informed business decisions, the report includes four main parts:
Specialty-Equipment Industry Outlook
• Sales for specialty-equipment parts are projected to have slowed in 2022, growing only 2% to $51.75 billion. Barring any significant economic disruption, industry sales growth should normalize in 2023 and return to the 3-4% growth seen during typical years.
Vehicle Trends Outlook
• New-vehicle sales finished at 13.7 million units in 2022, roughly 1.2 million units below 2021 levels. Due to supply shortages, high prices and rising interest rates, it will likely take until 2025 before things return to pre-pandemic levels.
• The prices of new vehicles are exceptionally high, hitting a record $49,507 in December 2022. Prices should soften over the next year, as supply-chain issues ease and sales soften.
U.S. Economic Outlook
• Inflation hit record levels in 2022 but has peaked and is starting to lower. SEMA estimates that inflation will continue to go down in 2023. By the end of 2023, it should normalize back to around 2% per year. Similarly, costs for producers are expected to go down in 2023.
• Unemployment in Q4 2022 hit 3.6% — its lowest level since the late 1960s. As the economy slows down in 2023, there will likely be an uptick in unemployment. It should improve again in 2024.
Supply-Chain Disruption
• Ninety percent of industry companies say they were moderately or severely impacted by supply-chain issues over the last year.
• The chip shortage is ongoing, but lead times are improving. As of October 2022, the lead delivery time for a chip was 25.5 weeks—down from its peak. However, supplies of chips for automobiles remain tight and constrained.
The complete “SEMA Future Trends – January 2023” report is available to download for free at www.sema.org/research.
