RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, N.C. – The preliminary national data on miles of travel in November are especially good news for the aftermarket, according to an article in the upcoming “Market Analysis,” the monthly research and analysis e-newsletter published by the Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association (AASA). November mileage reported an uptick following a dismal October report when the string of year-over-year positive monthly mileage reports for 2009 ended, according to the Federal Highway Administration of the U.S. Department of Transportation in their Office of Highway Policy (OHPI) mileage report.
November data shows an increase of 1.36 percent versus 2008 mileage levels. Year-to-date travel with one month remaining in 2009 stood at 0.28 percent, almost guaranteeing a positive year. This is an impressive turnaround – just six months ago, year-to-date mileage was down by more than 1 percent. Most significant of all, the rolling 12-month total, what the OHPI calls Annual Vehicle Distance Traveled, was up 0.19 percent. This is the first positive report for the rolling 12-month total since February 2008.
The state-by-state November results included some impressive totals, according “Market Analysis.” The Dakotas each posted 8 percent travel increases versus November 2008, while Nebraska and New Jersey reports indicated increases of more than 4 percent. Only six states, Florida, Vermont, Oregon, Arizona, Hawaii and Nevada, reported decreases for November, while 33 posted growth of greater than 1 percent. November 2008 travel was 5.2 lower than November 2007, one of the worst single month declines on record, so the 2009 results, while good, must be understood in context.
The recovery of vehicle mileage in the second half of 2009 has been mild compared to 2008, meaning that a full recovery to travel levels reported in 2006 or 2007 remains far off. Year-to-date 2009 travel, while 0.28 percent higher than 2008, is 3.38 percent lower than year-to-date 2007 mileage. 3.3 percent means more than 94 billion fewer miles have been driven through November 2009 as compared to just two years ago. The 282 million fewer miles per day will have an impact on business and demonstrates just how much improvement still needs to occur before travel totals have recovered.
Full details and more analysis of mileage changes can be found in the January “Market Analysis “Market Analysis,” the monthly e-newsletter from AASA. “Market Analysis” is available free to AASA, HDMA and OESA members, as membership benefit. Recent issues are available by clicking here.
