BOULDER, Colo. — The likelihood that a North American consumer will choose to buy a plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) is based on a variety of factors: age, race, gender, income and attitude toward renewable energy, among other things, according to a study by Pike Research.
One other factor serves as an important indicator: geography, i.e., in which state or province and in which city the person lives. According to the new report from Pike, a part of Navigant’s Energy Practice, the state with the highest PEV sales over the remainder of this decade will be California, followed by New York, Florida, Texas and Washington.
Between 2012 and 2020, the report concludes, nearly one in every four PEVs sold in the United States will be sold in California.
“PEV sales roughly correspond to population, but other factors, including demographics, socioeconomics and public policy, have a strong influence as well,” says senior research analyst Dave Hurst. “Florida, for example – the third-largest market for PEVs – has 60 percent of the population of California, but by 2020 Florida will have only 25 percent the number of PEVs found in California.”
The state with the highest penetration rate of PEVs, as a percentage of total light-duty vehicle sales, will be Hawaii, where fuel costs are high and average distances driven are relatively short, according to the report.
In addition, as manufacturers launch new PEV models, the vehicles are not expected to be available equally in all areas, as original equipment manufacturers thus far have made vehicles available initially and in greater numbers in what they view as key markets before moving to nationwide rollouts. California, the focus of both strong green vehicle policies and accelerated manufacturer rollouts, will have four of the top ten metropolitan areas for PEV sales: Los Angeles/Long Beach, the San Francisco Bay Area, San Jose/Santa Clara, and the Sacramento area.
The report, “Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts," provides data and forecasts for the plug-in electric vehicle market for U.S. states and metropolitan statistical areas as well as Canadian provinces and cities. The report also includes forecasts for PEV sales across selected electric utility service territories. The data includes sales forecasts from 2012 to 2020 at each geographic level as well as analysis of major trends in the forecasts. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the Pike Research website.
For more information, visit www.navigant.com/pikeresearch.
