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IHS Markit: Analysis and Commentary On October Vehicle Sales

Softer than expected October sales points to potential that full-year could possibly be somewhere between 14.9-15.1M units.

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IHS Markit’s U.S. light vehicle sales forecast as published in October stands at 15.1M units. Softer than expected October sales points to potential that full-year could possibly be somewhere between 14.9-15.1M units.

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Comments from Chris Hopson, manager, North American light vehicle forecast, IHS Markit:

“Incoming reports reflect October sales volume that will look similar to the month-prior result, approximately one million units for the month.  The bad news is that September 2021 had two more selling days than October 2021.  Supply constrained sales levels are expected to continue through the remainder of Q4 with sales impacts certainly remaining in 2022. 

Comments from Stephanie Brinley, principal automotive analyst, IHS Markit:

“As expected, given supply chain issues in the third quarter, on top of an already lean inventory level after 2020 production interruptions, October 2021 U.S. light-vehicle sales have slowed. 

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Through most of 2022, IHS Markit expects light-vehicle sales to be constrained by supply rather than driven by demand. Buyer loyalty to brand and segment will be tested, particularly for buyers who do not have the ability to hold off on a purchase, which could have some ripple effect in the future. In 2020, we saw automakers aggressively accelerate efforts to digitalize the purchase process, to mitigate effects of COVID-19 restrictions on business activities. In 2022, we could see increased efforts at convincing buyers to order vehicles rather than the traditional buy-drive today model. This creates opportunity continued shifts in the consumer vehicle shopping and buying process. In addition, the limited supply will also have the effect of causing some consumers to remain on the sidelines.”

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