TrueCar Inc. projected that total new vehicle sales, including fleet deliveries, would reach 1,544,900 units in August, down by 2.1 percent from a year ago.

Last month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 17.3 million units, down from a 17.8 million-unit SAAR a year ago. Excluding fleet sales, U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks should decline 3.3 percent to 1,330,776 based on slower consumer demand.

“Despite sales beginning to cool off, the industry is still on pace for a record year,” said Eric Lyman, TrueCar’s chief industry analyst. “2015 delivered a 10-year high in August sales, so automakers faced a high hurdle to show year-over-year gains in August 2016.”

Subaru may report the biggest year-over-year retail sales gain, as it is currently on pace for a 9 percent rise in volume. Toyota will likely follow with a 1.4 percent retail sales increase. Honda Motor Co. Ltd. may post the third-biggest gain, with a 0.5 percent increase in retail sales.

Total volume for non-luxury, mass-market brands will likely be down by 2 percent versus last year, while sales of luxury models may decline by 2.9 percent. The industry continues to be propelled by the utility vehicle and light truck segments, notably compact crossovers and large utility vehicles, according to TrueCar.

Incentive spending by automakers averaged an estimated $3,331 per vehicle in August, up 7.7 percent from a year ago, though down 2.2 percent from July 2016.

“Full employment and stable consumer confidence combined with sustained low gas prices in the U.S. will continue to buoy the market for trucks and SUVs through the fall,” said Morgan Hansen, TrueCar’s forecaster and director of data science.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index is relatively unchanged in July at 97.3, down from 97.4 in June, and overall U.S. economic conditions remain healthy. July’s unemployment rate was 4.9 percent, the lowest for that month in eight years, while gasoline prices remain favorable for consumers, falling to a national average of $2.21 per gallon on August 29 from $2.49 a year earlier, according to AAA.

Other key findings for August:

• Registration mix is expected to be 86.1 percent retail sales and 13.9 percent fleet versus 87.2 percent retail and 12.8 percent fleet last July.
• Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships and private-party transactions, may reach 3,304,916, up 2.3 percent from August 2015.

Total Market Share for August 2016: