RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, N.C. – While key automotive aftermarket indicators remain in the positive range on average and show only slightly weaker quarter-on-quarter growth, the Aftermarket Supplier Sentiment Index as measured by the Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association (AASA) fell to third quarter 2008 levels in the third quarter 2011 “AASA Aftermarket Supplier Barometer.”

“This dichotomy of attitudes that are more negative than performance indicators is true of the general U.S. economy as well,” said Steve Handschuh, president and COO of AASA. “What remains to be seen is whether this negative sentiment becomes an accurate predictor of future economic performance in the aftermarket and the economy as a whole.”

In spite of the general pessimism for the economy, aftermarket suppliers were much more optimistic about their specific companies’ future performance.

“Despite the challenges ahead, the overwhelming majority of our aftermarket supplier members predict growth for their companies in 2012,” Handschuh said.

The AASA Supplier Barometer tracks performance patterns through a variety of indicators including sales, pricing, inventory, capacity, hiring and new orders. The third quarter indicators show:

• Positive growth on average
• Weaker quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year trends
• An increasing number of companies exhibiting negative performance

“There is no doubt that several quarters of comparatively worsening performance sends a clear warning signal,” said Paul McCarthy, AASA vice president of industry analysis, planning and member services. “The uncertain economy is clearly on suppliers’ minds, with Barometer respondents citing the economy – both in the U.S. and abroad – as the biggest driver of change this quarter.”

“Suppliers’ top concerns in the third quarter were high raw material prices and margin compression,” noted Handschuh. “An issue which is rising among top supplier concerns is world economic conditions, which has reached its highest level since second quarter 2009.”

“While a slight majority of Barometer respondents say they believe the U.S. has or will soon enter a recession, a vast majority think that, even in a recession, the aftermarket will outperform the general economy as it did in the last downturn,” noted McCarthy.

The “AASA Aftermarket Supplier Barometer” is a quarterly survey of AASA full service supplier members on key indicators and market trends. The full survey report is an exclusive AASA member benefit and is available only to member companies that participate in the survey.