SCHAUMBURG, Ill. -- Scrappage rates for light trucks decreased
in the fourth quarter of 2009, while rates for passenger cars
increased, according to new analysis of Experian Automotive’s AutoCount
Vehicles in Operation (VIO) data.
Knowing where the shifts in scrappage rates are occurring is critical
to helping automotive aftermarket companies understand which vehicles
are and aren’t candidates for aftermarket service or repair, notes
Experian. With more passenger cars leaving the vehicle population and a
higher population of light trucks on the road today, there may be
strong opportunities for those aftermarket retailers and manufacturers
serving the light truck market, according to the global information
services firm.
Driven by the “Cash for Clunkers” program, scrappage rates for light
trucks increased from the second quarter to the third quarter of 2009
by 0.5 percent. Although scrappage rates declined by 0.3 percent from
the third quarter to the fourth quarter, they still ended the year
higher compared with the first quarter (4.2 percent scrappage rate for
the year). However, passenger car scrappage rates continued to increase
each quarter and finished the year with an estimated total 5.4 percent
rate.
Experian’s analysis also revealed that the number of passenger cars and
light trucks in the United States that are now considered to be in the
aftermarket “sweet spot” has shrunk to nearly 91 million vehicles, down
1.75 percent from the previous year. The aftermarket sweet spot
comprises vehicles five to 10 years old — the age when vehicles are
ripe for having the most parts replaced or serviced. According to Marty
Miller, senior product marketing manager for Experian Automotive’s
AutoCount Vehicles in Operation, the decreasing number of vehicles in
the sweet spot provides the aftermarket with fewer opportunities for
replacement parts.
“This trend indicates that the aftermarket’s sweet spot is on a course
to continue to decline due to the lower number of new vehicle sales
that have occurred over the past couple of years,” Miller said. “While
volumes are expected to decrease, opportunities will remain high for
those aftermarket businesses that understand how these trends impact
their specific markets.”
Other key findings in Experian’s just-released AutoCount Vehicles in
Operation analysis, which covers the fourth quarter of 2009, reveal:
• Light trucks on the road in the United States once again edged out
the number of passenger cars (50.1 percent to 49.9 percent). After
light trucks surpassed passenger cars in the second quarter, cars
rebounded to edge out light trucks in the third quarter;
• The traditional Big Three automakers (General Motors, Ford and
Chrysler) account for 76.4 percent of the vehicle population in the
Midwest versus the West, where they comprise 53 percent of the vehicles
on the road. (The U.S. average is 63.2 percent for the Big Three.);
• Despite the current media and political attention, hybrid vehicles account for a mere
0.67 percent of vehicles on the road in the United States; and
• The total number of light-duty vehicles in operation in the United
States has steadily declined since the second quarter of 2009, as seen
in the chart below.
AutoCount VIO quarter Total light-duty vehicles
March 31, 2009 239,986,279
June 30, 2009 240,264,794
Sept. 30, 2009 239,783,612
Dec. 31, 2009 239,061,943
Experian’s AutoCount Vehicles in Operation provides timely visibility
to what cars and trucks are on the road in a local market, helping
aftermarket retailers better serve their customers by stocking the
right parts. The data is updated within six weeks of the end of each
quarter, ensuring that aftermarket organizations have the timeliest
information available to help better manage inventory levels,
efficiently plan for new vehicle introductions, adjust for technology
changes, and better assess locations for retail stores and service bays.
For more information on Experian’s AutoCount Vehicles in Operation and other products and services, visit http://www.experianautomotive.com.
