WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif. -- October new-vehicle retail sales are expected to decline only 6 percent compared with one year ago -- the first single-digit decline since May 2008, according to J.D. Power and Associates. This decline marks the most significant improvement in 17 months, excluding August 2009 when year-over-year sales were up 13 percent due to the CARS (Cash for Clunkers) program.

October new-vehicle retail sales are expected to come in at 651,600 units, which represent a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 8.3 million units. With fleet volume down only 4 percent from one year ago, total sales for October are projected to come in at 816,600 units, down 6 percent from October 2008.

"While year-over-year comparisons benefit from a low-selling base in October 2008, improvements in consumer confidence and credit are propelling the return to positive sales gains relative to last year," said Gary Dilts, senior vice president of global automotive operations at J.D. Power and Associates. "October's selling rate is expected to come in at 10.3 million units -- nearly flat compared with 10.5 million units one year ago -- which is an encouraging sign for the industry and in line with our expectations for the rest of the year."

While most of the retail segment mix remains relatively unchanged from September, the share of pickup trucks increased to nearly 14 percent from less than 12 percent last month, driven mainly by strong marketing programs, incentives and stable fuel prices.

J.D. Power and Associates is maintaining its forecast for 2009 at 10.3 million units for total sales, with retail sales projected to come in at 8.6 million units. The 2010 forecast remains at 11.5 million units for total sales and 9.5 million units for retail sales.

"As economic conditions improve, there's a renewed sense of optimism and momentum building in the industry," said Jeff Schuster, executive director of global forecasting at J.D. Power and Associates. "While 2009 has been a difficult year, this crisis will lead to innovation and efficiency gains, ultimately creating a healthier industry. Total sales in 2010 are expected to improve 12 percent from 2009, but given the right conditions, next year could be even stronger than currently predicted."