The 12th annual Global Automotive Aftermarket Symposium (GAAS) kicked off today in Chicago. Framed around the theme of “Survival in a Changing Aftermarket,” a new technology was introduced this year at the day-and-a-half event. New to the symposium program this year is an interactive voting tool that will allow the more than 400 attendees at the event an opportunity to chime in on industry issues throughout the program.

Introducing this new tool, GAAS Chair Jimsey Keith joked that the voting device made this year’s GAAS much like the hit reality show American Idol. She made another Idol/aftermarket comparison in introducing the Idol-inspired “The Global Symposium Gives Back” video, which showcases the annual GAAS event and those aftermarket businesses and industry professionals that support the GAAS scholarship. Also featured in the video were recent symposium scholarship recipients, who talked about their passion for the industry.

With more than $1 million in scholarship funds awarded to students over the last decade, a recent survey shows that 85 percent of former symposium scholarship recipients are now working in the aftermarket. This year, 154 recipients were selected out of nearly 400 applicants; 109 of the scholarships were given to students who will attend two-year vo-tech programs, 33 were awarded to students who will pursue four-year degrees in the field and 12 of the scholarships were presented to students in Canada .

Moving to financial figures of another kind, GAAS keynote speaker William Strauss, senior economist and economic advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, gave GAAS attendees his outlook on the U.S. economy.

Survival in a Global Economy … Winners and Losers

“We have an economy that is still continuing to grow,” said Strauss. “We’re definitely dealing with weakness in terms of economic growth. There are a number of sectors are still doing well while others are struggling. It’s not uniform.”

Inflation has backed off substantially from mid-2006, in large part due to what has been happening with energy prices, said Strauss. Yet, the core inflation rate is slightly above the Fed’s ‘comfort zone’ right now, he said. Unemployment rates are sitting at 4.5 percent, well below natural unemployment, suggestive of a tight labor market.

One of the biggest challenges in the U.S. economy today is the slowing of productivity growth, a direct link to standards of living, which has been below two percent for the past year. Strauss believes this slowdown is only temporary, as businesses continue to hire despite the productivity slowdown. “It’s a phenomenon known in the economics world as ‘labor hoarding,’” said Strauss.

Good signs for the economy: profits continue to do well, the stock market continues to rise and manufacturing output growth has been moderating since mid-2006. Manufacturing output in the U.S. has never been higher said Strauss. “The U.S. manufacturing sector is larger than the entire Chinese economy at this point,” he said. “So keep things in perspective.”

Looking specifically at the automotive market, Strauss thinks vehicle sales will remain relatively flat going forward. However, a number of changes have been taking place in the motor vehicle industry. For example, the rapid growth in the light truck market in the 90s has subsided and passenger car sales have been moving higher again, due in part to high gas prices. In addition, the inventory adjustment among automakers is now complete, Strauss said, which means production rates will improve over the next nine months.

For the economy overall, Strauss said he expects growth to continue, with employment edging a big higher. The vehicle market will remain flat and the housing market will remain the most risky sector to invest in.